Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mainly explains why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to take a look at this pie, you could make an argument that either team might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the very first Canadian group because Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks with media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll probably take a bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers should be preferred.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious concern: Are these two groups much better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than last year, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a possibility to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they actually going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might give it to him here, however that's something to enjoy as the video games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing apart ... there is a real life where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been deemed a weakness on the roster, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has permitted one or zero objectives in 5 of his past seven starts, 3 of them shutouts.


Another great run in the internet could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have informed you this was sustainable in the past," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally reach the Panthers. Or they could simply be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously might go either method and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)